The numbers
The figures below come from public filings in Miller v. Ford Motor Co., No. 2:20-cv-01796 (E.D. Cal.). They are expert projections based on Ford warranty data, offered in litigation. They are not findings by the court, and Ford disputes the plaintiffs' claims.
~11%projected failure rate for 2017 to 2019 Escape 1.5L by 5 years in service (plaintiffs' warranty expert)
23 to 27%projected failure rate for the same engines by 10 years (plaintiffs' warranty expert)
~0.12%10-year figure for 2017 to 2019 Escapes with other engines, 0.12% to 0.13% (plaintiffs' warranty expert)
25 to 34%projected failure rate for Edge 2.0L by 10 years (plaintiffs' warranty expert)
Ford's engineering expert, Dr. Lillo, writes that Ford's warranty expert, Dr. Lennox, estimates the 1.6L engine's warranty replacement rate at about 1%, which is 5 to 10 times lower than the 1.5L engine's (Dkt. 200-3, para. 71).
Sources: Expert report of Dr. Wachs for plaintiffs (ECF 169-19, see paras. 76 and 77); Expert rebuttal report of Dr. Lillo for Ford (ECF 200-3, para. 71), via CourtListener.
A hearing on class certification and related motions (partial summary judgment and motions to exclude experts) is set for November 9, 2026 at 1:30 PM (minute order, Dkt. 204, September 15, 2026). This site is not part of that case and does not represent any party.